Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Subclass_Puzzles Sebuah perasaan halus

Sebuah perasaan halus

This book is about life which spanned the Inter-War years - of a childhood in Hong Kong and Kuala Lumpur

Sephy is a Cross - a member of the dark-skinned ruling class

' Featuring Rosalind

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Subclass_Puzzles Sebuah perasaan halusEverything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson